The media landscape of the NFL could soon change just years after the league agreed to an 11-year, $110 billion media rights agreement.
The 2023 season was the first year that the NFL’s latest media deal went into full effect and runs through the 2033 season. Fans can find live NFL games on national networks and streaming services: ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, FOX, NBC, CBS, NFL Network, Prime Video, Paramount+, Peacock, NFL+, ESPN+, and NFL Sunday Ticket. Plus, later this year, Netflix will exclusively stream two Christmas Day games for the first time.
However, this could all change within a few years before the agreements expire in 2033, according to a CNBC report. When the NFL signed the long-term media agreements with Disney, Amazon, NBCUniversal, Fox, and Paramount, the league added an opt-out clause for the conclusion of the 2028-29 season on all of the packages except Disney’s. The league can opt out of the Disney deal after 2030, per the report.
The ability to opt out early will help owners cash in on the popularity of the sport by growing its value as other leagues, such as the NBA, are seeing an increase in their rights deals as well, per the CNBC report:
“The NFL is the largest and most valuable audience in the U.S. for advertisers,” said Neal Pilson, former president of CBS Sports and founder and president of Pilson Communications. “The NBA deal will be a benchmark, but it will also be ancient history by the time the NFL renews, even if it opts out. That’s still four years away. Everyone is aware of how well the NBA did. But in the end, the NFL’s rights deal will be predicated on its audience and the revenue third parties think it can generate from being a partner.”
Due to the enormous number of viewers that NFL games acquire and how often they’re the most watched live event, an opt-out could very likely occur. Throw in talks of an 18th game and international expansion the league’s value should continue to rise. Added to the equation, is the sum of money that tech companies are investing into live sports and events.
Just in 2024 alone, in addition to the NBA deal, tech companies are becoming major players, with Netflix and the WWE agreeing to a 10-year, $5 billion deal to bring WWE Raw to the streamer next year. Netflix also paid $150 million to air the aforementioned two Christmas Day NFL games. Recent reports suggest that Amazon could look to bring NBA, MLB, and NHL games that air on Bally Sports RSNs to its Prime Video platform.
NFL owners have to salivate after seeing deals like those due to how many more people watch their product in comparison. And to the NFL’s part, it has had its eye on the digital media landscape for some time. The league knew that “streaming is extremely important” for future media deals and has been trying to get the game in the hands of more fans by expanding past linear TV.
The NBA left TNT after 40 years and began a partnership with Amazon, and the NFL could leave Fox, CBS, and its other legacy media partners for the deep pockets of tech giants, including Apple when looking for its next deals. The more these companies pay, the more the value of a franchise goes up, and the player’s salary cap increases.
With pay TV subscribers dwindling, more traditional distributors are bundling with streaming services to retain subscribers. Bundles are likely to become more common in the market as a mix of the best of both worlds for consumers. Especially for those who don’t live in an area that gets reliable high-speed internet and struggle with streaming games which would make cable, satellite, or antenna preferable.
An NBC News report highlights how predicting the NFL’s future could be tough due to ongoing changes, mergers, and difficulties in the media industry:
“Anyone telling you with any degree of certainty the NFL is going to opt out or not is bananas,” said Daniel Cohen, executive vice president of global media rights consulting at Octagon. “There’s so much you can’t predict even two years out, never mind six.”
“There probably will be companies that don’t exist today that will merge to create new competitive bidders,” said former CBS Sports President Neal Pilson, who founded sports media consulting firm Pilson Communications. “Other deals, like the NBA, are a data point, but the NFL is its own marketplace. The programming is the honey. It’s all driven by the popularity of the NFL.”
How the NFL tackles its next media deal remains to be seen. But, for now, fans can learn where to watch NFL games in 2024 as Week 1 continues.