The ongoing blackout of ESPN, ABC, and other Disney-owned networks on Google’s YouTube TV service has created significant financial strain for the entertainment giant, with analysts estimating weekly revenue losses approaching $30 million. This translates to roughly $4.3 million per day in forfeited carriage fees and advertising income, as the dispute enters its second full week without resolution. Morgan Stanley equity analysts Benjamin Swinburne and Thomas Yeh detailed these figures in a recent research note, projecting a $60 million revenue headwind for Disney’s fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 due to just 14 days of interrupted service.
November 11 marks the 12th consecutive day that YouTube TV subscribers have been unable to access Disney channels, a period that has already encompassed major sporting events and primetime programming. Viewers missed back-to-back Monday Night Football matchups, including the Philadelphia Eagles versus Green Bay Packers game on November 10 and the Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys contest on November 3. College football broadcasts on Saturdays, along with daily staples such as ABC News’ World News Tonight and Good Morning America, have also vanished from the platform. The blackout began just before midnight Eastern Time on October 30, following the expiration of the prior carriage agreement between Disney and Google.
Analysts anticipate the standoff will conclude later this week, though each additional seven days of darkness is expected to shave two cents off Disney’s adjusted earnings per share. The company is set to release its September 2025 quarter results—covering the final three months of its 2025 fiscal year—on Thursday, November 13, prior to the opening bell. Consensus estimates from financial data provider LSEG project $22.78 billion in total revenue and earnings per share of $1.02.
YouTube TV itself is experiencing subscriber attrition amid the impasse. A survey conducted last week revealed that 24 percent of users have either already canceled their subscriptions or plan to do so specifically because of the missing Disney networks. In response, the streaming service initiated notifications on Sunday, guiding customers through the process of claiming a one-time $20 account credit to offset the disruption. A spokesperson for YouTube described any churn as manageable and disputed the survey’s cancellation projections.
At the heart of the conflict lies a disagreement over pricing. Google has characterized Disney’s demands as an unprecedented rate increase, while Disney maintains that the tech company is unwilling to compensate fairly for its portfolio of channels. The timing of the dispute coincides with broader shifts in sports media consumption. Disney launched ESPN Unlimited in August, a comprehensive standalone streaming package consolidating all ESPN content. Morgan Stanley analysts view the rollout positively, forecasting approximately 3 million subscribers by September 2026, with each contributing $18 to $20 in monthly net revenue. This initiative is projected to add around $500 million in subscription income for Disney during fiscal year 2026.
The analysts’ outlook does not factor in a separate pending transaction involving the National Football League, under which the league would receive a 10 percent equity stake in ESPN potentially valued at up to $2.5 billion. As negotiations between Disney and Google continue behind closed doors, the prolonged absence of high-profile content underscores the high stakes for both parties in an evolving landscape of cord-cutting and direct-to-consumer offerings. The resolution, whenever it arrives, will influence not only immediate quarterly results but also longer-term strategies for content distribution in the streaming era.
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