For many, streaming was a cheaper alternative to cable, but after years of price hikes, ad tiers, and bundle creep, a new forecast suggests that if those pricing trends continue over the next decade, today’s subscription costs could eventually look like a bargain.
According to an analysis by PlayCasino.com, two of the biggest ad-free plans could become a lot harder to justify. The study found that HBO Max’s Standard Ad-Free plan could reach about $31 per month by 2036, while Apple TV could climb to an astonishing $175 per month if each service continues increasing prices at the same average annual rate seen since launch.
Neither figure is a prediction of what will actually happen. Instead, they’re long-term projections that illustrate how years of seemingly modest price increases can compound into dramatically higher monthly bills. However, these forecasts reinforce the trend of streaming becoming more expensive, and consumers are responding by becoming much more selective about what they pay for.
HBO Max’s price trajectory points toward $31 per month
PlayCasino’s analysis examined HBO Max’s pricing history, beginning with its 2020 launch. The service debuted at $14.99 per month before eventually evolving into today’s HBO Max Standard Ad-Free plan, which currently costs $18.49 per month.
Based on that growth, analysts calculated an average annual increase of approximately 4.7% between 2020 and 2025. If that same pace continued through 2036, the monthly price would climb to $30.55, or roughly $31 per month.
As one subscription‑pricing researcher at PlayCasino explained: “A $31 monthly streaming bill would be a psychological jump for many households because it moves a single ad-free service much closer to the price people expect from a bundle or utility-style cost. This projection is not saying Max will definitely reach that point. It shows how quickly a familiar entertainment expense can grow if modest rises keep compounding. “
That projection comes as Warner Bros. Discovery has already raised HBO Max prices several times over the past few years while introducing multiple subscription tiers, including ad-supported and premium options. HBO Max has rolled out a limited-time promotion where new and returning subscribers can save 40% on a yearly Basic With Ads, Standard, or Premium plan.
The analysis also comes as Paramount continues working to complete its proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. The deal would put HBO Max and Paramount+ under the same corporate umbrella. Paramount executives have already said they intend to merge the two streaming platforms after the transaction closes, creating a single service with more than 200 million direct-to-consumer subscribers.
While the company has not announced any pricing plans for a combined platform, mergers of this scale often raise questions about future subscription costs, bundle options, and whether consumers will ultimately pay more for a larger, more content-rich streaming service.
Apple TV tells a much different and more dramatic story
While HBO Max’s projected increase is significant, Apple TV‘s forecast stands out because of how much the service’s price has already grown since launch.
Apple TV launched in 2019 at $4.99 per month, and today subscribers pay $12.99, meaning the service has more than doubled in price in just six years. Using that historical growth rate, PlayCasino calculated an average annual increase of 26.7%. If that exact pace continued through 2036, Apple TV would reach approximately $175 per month, or more than $2,100 per year for a single streaming subscription.
One thing that separates Apple TV from most major streamers is that it still keeps things relatively simple with a single ad-free subscription. At the same time, Apple has leaned more heavily into bundles to make the service feel more affordable at the edges, including Apple TV and Peacock bundle options starting at $14.99 a month through Peacock, a Premium Plus version at $19.99, and a limited-time version now available through Prime Video that offers more than 30% savings compared with subscribing separately.
The analyst added, “A $175 monthly Apple TV bill would look extreme to today’s subscribers, so it should be treated as a warning scenario rather than the most likely outcome. But the calculation shows how quickly small entertainment bills can become painful if repeated price rises compound over time. Households should review which subscriptions they actually use, especially when annual renewals or bundle offers make the true monthly cost less obvious.”
The $175-per-month scenario is highly unlikely to play out exactly as projected. Still, it demonstrates the power of compound price increases over long periods, especially for services that begin with very low introductory pricing.
These forecasts fit a much bigger trend, and consumers are already responding
Neither of these projections exists in a vacuum, as over the last several years, nearly every major streaming platform has increased prices. Netflix has repeatedly raised subscription costs. Paramount+ has become more expensive. Peacock has implemented multiple price hikes. Disney+, Hulu, Prime Video add-ons, YouTube Premium, Spotify, Crunchyroll, and others have all asked subscribers to pay more.
Earlier this month, one analysis projected Netflix could exceed $50 per month by 2035 under certain pricing scenarios. Another “Streamflation” study suggested streaming subscriptions overall could become more than 70% more expensive by 2035 if historical pricing trends continue.
For years, many households accumulated streaming subscriptions without giving them much thought. It wasn’t unusual to have Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, Paramount+, Apple TV, and Prime Video all active at the same time.
However, that behavior is drastically changing. A recent spring survey of Cord Cutters News readers found that 53.3% of cord cutters now subscribe to three streaming services or fewer, while more than 70% pay for four or fewer. Instead of keeping every platform year-round, many viewers have started rotating subscriptions based on what they actually plan to watch.
When several streaming subscriptions, live TV services, music subscriptions, and sports packages are combined, the monthly bill can begin looking surprisingly similar to the cable packages many people left behind. Despite those increases, studies have found that an overwhelming majority of people do not regret cutting the cord and ditching cable or satellite.
Ads are not solving the problem either
Even as higher prices are pushing people toward ad-supported plans, cord cuters aren’t exactly embracing the strategy. A study previously covered by Cord Cutters News found that 76% of streamers believe services now show too many ads. And only 24% of respondents said they actually pay attention when commercials run.
Despite those lower-priced options, many subscribers continue paying extra for ad-free viewing. The same study found that more than half of Netflix subscribers still choose the ad-free plan, while large percentages of HBO Max and Disney+ customers do the same.
For streaming companies, that creates a difficult balancing act. Raising prices risks losing subscribers, while adding more advertising risks frustrating the people who stay.
Tips and hacks to save money on streaming today
The good news is that cord cutters have more tools than ever to keep streaming costs under control. The days of subscribing to everything all year long are fading, but savvy cord cutters can still save a significant amount of money with a little planning.
Here are some of the easiest ways to lower your monthly streaming bill:
- Rotate your subscriptions. Subscribe to one or two services, binge the shows you want, then cancel and move to another platform.
- Take advantage of annual plans. If you know you’ll keep a service for a full year, annual billing often reduces the effective monthly cost.
- Watch for promotions. Black Friday, Prime Day, Memorial Day, back-to-school sales, and holiday promotions frequently offer discounts for new and returning subscribers.
- Bundle whenever possible. Wireless carriers, internet providers, credit card rewards, and streaming bundles often include services like Apple TV, Netflix, Disney+, or HBO Max at reduced prices.
- Review your subscriptions regularly. It’s surprisingly easy to forget about a service that automatically renews each month.
- Don’t overlook introductory offers. Many platforms offer free trials or heavily discounted rates for the first few months, making it cheaper to catch up on a series before canceling.
As prices climb, strategy matters more than subscriptions
The idea of paying $31 a month for HBO Max or $175 a month for Apple TV may sound far-fetched today, but PlayCasino’s forecasts aren’t really about those specific numbers. They’re a reminder that streaming prices have steadily climbed for years, and those increases have begun changing how people watch TV.
Instead of subscribing to everything all the time, more cord cutters are rotating services, hunting for deals, and taking advantage of bundles to keep costs in check. Though many people feel that streaming is a more expensive version of cable, it still offers tremendous value compared to many traditional TV packages, but only if subscribers stay proactive.
As prices continue to rise across the industry, being selective about which services you keep may become just as important as deciding which ones to watch.
