Disney+ launched as a highly anticipated, well-known media outlet that generated buzz from the start. Now it’s proving to be the powerhouse we originally thought it would be, on track to cruise past the forecast numbers Disney itself set at launch.
At last year’s Investor Day, Disney projected its subscriber count would reach 60 million to 90 million range by 2024. Now, MoffetNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson is predicting the streamer’s subscribers will number closer to a whopping 155 million by the next 4 years. The streaming service already reached 60.5 million subscribers at its latest count in August.
“While it is still too early to know how the profitability forecast will play out depending on how much Disney will seek to re-invest the higher revenue run rate into programming, we can see the dramatic upside at Disney+ relative to the company’s initial guidance and our estimates after the investor day,” Nathanson wrote.
It looks like Disney undershot projections for some of its other entities as well. At the same investor day in 2019. Disney announced Hulu would reach the 40 million and 60 million subscriber range, while ESPN+ would grow to between 8 million and 12 million in 2024. However, Nathanson is saying the subscriber count projection for 2024 is likely closer 66 million for Hulu, and 18 million subscribers for ESPN+.
Outperforming original predictions seems like a good problem for Disney to have, right? After all, underpromise and over deliver as the saying goes.